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Ryan Zupan
#103, 1245 W Broadway,
Vancouver, BC
V6H 1G7
604.250.6122
City Wide Mortgage Services – Zupan Mortgage Services (E, & O, E.).
Bank of Canada Update – No Change!
/in Misc. /by adminA slower month for data dumps but here are the highlights:
Interest Rates unchanged:Bank of Canada has left interest rates unchanged. Prime Rate stays at 4.45%Bond yields up slightly over the past month
Economic Indicators:Bank of Canada projects Canada GDP in 2026 to fall 1.5% below pre-tariff trajectory2026 economic growth for Canada expected to be 0.7%2027 & 2028 growth expected to be 1.8%
Job Market:Employment little changed (up 0.1% in June)Unemployment dropped from 6.6% to 6.5%
Inflation:CPI jumped to 3.2% (up from 2.8% in April)Core inflation measures stayed anchored (Trimmed-mean 2% + median 2.1%)inflation expected to ease from recent spike & avg 2% in 2027 & 2028
Forecasts:Markets pushed the next expected rate hike (+0.25%) to January 2027 with 1 additional hike mid 2027
Next Bank of Canada Meeting:Scheduled for Sept 2nd, 2026
Here’s what actually shifted this month, and what it means for your rate.
Why The Bank Did This
The Bank kept it’s foot off the gas as May’s inflation reading came in hot — 3.2% year-over-year, up from 2.8% in April, largely due to a gas price spike tied to Middle East supply fears. With inflation running well above the 2% target & the Canadian dollar losing value against USD, cutting further would have risked reigniting price pressures & further depreciating the loonie, even as growth stays soft.
What This Means For Your Mortgage
Variable rate & HELOC holders: no change to your monthly payments
Fixed rate shoppers: fixed rates track Government of Canada bond yields, not the Bank of Canada moves directly. The 5-year yield has already drifted higher over the past month as markets priced in a cautious Bank.
Whatever the Bank did today, here’s a reminder that the rate itself is rarely where the real savings are:I wanted to highlight how powerful mortgage structure can be in materially improving your financial situation, without changing your overall cash flow.
Recently, a client came to us wanting to shop their bank’s mortgage offer for their presale purchase. The purchase was going to be a rental & the clients had been setting aside the required 20% down for the purchase. Like EVERYONE they were just thinking about lowest rate but not thinking through what they were really after — saving money.
The clients wanted this rental purchase to help bring them closer to retirement. They didn’t like debt & had done a good job of reducing the mortgage on their primary residence to a relatively small figure.
THEIR PLAN:Use the deposit already given + savings for the 20% down payment.
RESULT:Mortgage the remaining 80% of the rental purchase, write off interest on that portion only (interest is tax deductible on income generating properties)Leave their current mortgage untouched
It’s situations like these, which I LOVE, because there is a real opportunity to meaningfully improve their situation without changing their overall debt load.
PROPOSED PLAN:Instead of applying their deposit + savings to the rental purchase, use it to pay off their primary mortgage (eliminating non tax deductible debt).Take out a small mortgage against their primary home to use for the down payment on the purchase (effectively financing 100% of the rental purchase & increasing their interest deduction from 80% to 100% of the rental purchase)
RESULT:mortgage free on family home (psychological win)income tax savings (financial win)no change to overall debt load (mortgage win!)
If you own (or are considering) a rental property, this kind of restructuring is worth a conversation even if you’re not renewing anything right now. Book in a call to talk today.
Rates held.. but Canada just slipped into a technical recession
/in Misc. /by adminBank of Canada Update – No Change!
Here are the highlights:
Interest Rates unchanged:
Economic Indicators:
Job Market:
Inflation:
Forecasts:
Markets are pricing in one rate hike (+0.25%) in 2026 & two (+0.5%) in 2027
Next Bank of Canada Meeting:
Scheduled for July 15th, 2026
The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged again at this morning’s interest rate announcement, as Canada dips into a technical recession with back to back declining quarters of GDP.
Central bankers use interest rates as the levers of the economy. When growth falters, lowering rates can ignite borrowing & investment to kick start a stagnant economy. When growth is strong & prices rise above the Bank of Canada’s inflation target, raising rates can prove a headwind to demand & bring price growth back to target.
In 2022 when Oil went up at the start of the Ukraine war, Canadians were sitting on significant savings to burn & the desire to match price increases, resulting in CPI cresting 8%. What followed was the most rate increases in over 40 years.
So what happens when growth falters while inflation climbs?
The consumer isn’t strong enough for higher prices to be passed on to. Demand isn’t there & that’s the exact setup Canada sits in right now.
The result is stagflation & an unclear rate path that could go in either direction.
The Bank of Canada does not want to raise rates, but the longer energy prices stay elevated, the tougher it is for companies to keep prices low.
As it currently stands, the 2 rate hikes being priced in for this year have dropped to one (+0.25%) in 2026 with two (+0.5%) in 2027. Let’s hope that continues to get kicked down the road.
Employment Surprise
The big surprise this past month was the May jobs data. After losing 112k jobs over the first four months in 2026, Canada unexpectedly gained over +87k jobs which is the strongest reading in 2 years & suggests the growth recession may not be long lasting.
So what does this all mean for your mortgage?
The case for variable has strengthened as the rate hike outlook has been pushed down the road. It’s not without risk, though, as elevated energy prices could most certainly bring hikes back into the foreground.
Longer term fixed rates haven’t really come down since the March jump, setting up shorter term fixed rates as a nice compromise between security & not being locked in for a particularly long period of time.
The reality is this isn’t just about the rate timing speculation. There’s what makes financial sense & what makes sense FOR YOU. My job is to help think through that decision & find a solution that is going to set you up for success while allowing you to sleep at night.
If you’d like a refresh to think your situation through, book in a call with me today.
One More Thing (And It’s More Important Than The Rate Announcement):
This week I met with a client whose husband recently passed away unexpectedly. The meeting was a powerful reminder of something we don’t talk about often enough:
What happens to your family (and home) if life takes a sudden turn?
The best time to buy life insurance is before you need it. Ask yourself this question: is your family protected if the unexpected happens?
If you’re not sure — and most people aren’t — just hit reply to this email or give me a call.
Fifteen minutes could be the most important conversation we ever have about your mortgage.
APRIL: Bank of Canada Holds.. But Here’s What Actually Changed.
/in Misc. /by adminHere are the highlights:
Good morning,
No movement on rates this morning by the Bank of Canada but it’s the second half of 2026 where things could get spicy.
The key issue stemming from the war in Iran will be inflation. Approximately 20% of global oil consumption passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Over 1 billion barrels of oil has been impacted thus far but that supply disruption doesn’t fully cast its shadow on inflation immediately. It works through the system in stages.
Initially, oil prices spike in real time — oil nearly doubled over the span of a month.
Then, refined products like gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, start to surge, and from there, transportation & production costs begin to rise which gradually feeds into the price of goods & services over the following months.
Businesses start adjusting pricing cautiously at first, then more broadly as higher input costs persist. The pressure compounds over time. The longer the strait is closed, the worse it gets.
The Bank of Canada has more or less downplayed the inflation risk, which makes sense. They don’t want to stoke the inflation concerns & make the situation worse, but make no mistake, there is meaningful upside risk to longer-term inflation if this draws out.
INFLATION EXPECTATIONS:
So how do you think about this with your mortgage? Right now there are no imminent rate moves being priced in. We’re 4-5 months from a potential rate hike. Unless you can get really favourable lock in rate close to 4%, when I model out the expected path of hikes it still makes sense to hold the fort if you’re in a variable.
Staying variable gives flexibility to benefit if inflation fades. You own the short term risk looking forward to long-term potential savings.
Locking into fixed buys certainty & would be a defensive move to pay more today to protect from paying a lot more by next year, if the conflict doesn’t de-escalate soon.
If you’re in fixed, and you’re coming up for renewal this year or next, the time to look at your renewal is now. Get in touch with me if you haven’t already, so I can run the math & go over your range of options & outcomes.
The Bottom Line: the mortgage decision in front of you right now isn’t just a rate question — it’s a risk tolerance question. How comfortable are you with the uncertainty over the next 12-18 months & what would it cost you if you’re wrong?
There’s no universally right answer, but there is a right answer for your situation — and that’s exactly what I’m here to help figure out.
The window to act with options still in front of you is open. Let’s make sure you use it.
WHY YOUR RENEWAL CLOCK STARTS EARLIER THAN YOU THINK
I try to get clients to think about renewals early. When a renewal is 8-12 months away, everyone moves slowly. It’s not a priority & most think, “future me will sort it out when I need to.”
But the unexpected happens all the time. Last month fixed rates surged up nearly 0.75% on some terms in the span of 2 weeks.
There are A LOT of borrowers with mortgages coming due in the next 6 months kicking themselves for not being proactive & already having rate holds in place.
These kinds of moves cost clients thousands & thousands of dollars.
If you have any friends or family with mortgage renewals this year or next, get in touch with me today.
Bank of Canada Dec 2025 – NO CHANGE
/in Misc. /by adminHere are the highlights:
Good morning,
No action from the Bank of Canada today as the economic data somewhat picked up to close out the year. Unemployment dropped 0.2% to 6.9% & Q3 GDP came in at 2.6% annualized which surprised above the 0.5% expected.
Q2 saw the economy contract on an annualized basis by 1.8% so the latest quarter’s jump to 2.6% seems to be a big positive move but the higher number had everything to do with how GDP is calculated.
Exports edged up while imports dropped sharply by 8.6%, which creates the impression of growth, more so than actual real strength. Household spending saw the largest quarterly decline outside the pandemic in nearly 20 years.
This could set quite a challenge for the Q4 number to come in strong.
In terms of what to expect next year, there is still a lot of uncertainty & trade related volatility. If layoffs continue & the trade war continues to throw more knuckleballs we could see the Bank of Canada take further action lowering rates but for now, the BofC sees the policy rate at about the right level to keep inflation close to the 2% target.
If you or any family members have a mortgage coming up for renewal in 2026, reach out to me today to line up a time to connect, get a game plan going & ensure you don’t miss out on any opportunities over the coming year.
That’s it for me! Thanks & have a great Christmas season.
Bank of Canada Oct 2025 – 0.25% CUT
/in Misc. /by adminHere are the highlights:
The Bank of Canada cut rates today 0.25%, lowering prime to 4.45%.
That’s the good news. The bad is, after Canada’s economy shrunk by 1.6% in the 2nd quarter, the Bank expects further weakening in the 2nd half of this year. The Bank’s forecast for growth is an anemic 1.2% this year, 1.1% next & 1.6% in 2027. Canada has had NO economic growth in 6 years. Think about that.
That comes as the parliamentary budget officer recently warned our government spending & debt is “unsustainable … alarming .. stupifying & shocking.”
This is a politically independent officer selected on the advice of our Prime Minister:
Imagine your family expenses growing each year so to cover those expenses you borrow from your line of credit telling yourself, “Once I get that raise, I’ll pay this down,” but that raise doesn’t come, so more & more of your pay cheque goes towards interest. You get further trapped in that cycle & it gets harder & harder to claw your way out without drastic changes.
The Bank of Canada feels the current rate level is now at about the right level & the next & final rate announcement of the year is Dec 10th. Until then, thanks for watching & have a great week.
Bank of Canada Rate Cut Sept – 0.25%
/in Misc. /by adminEconomic Indicators:GDP declined in Q2 1.6%Global economy showing signs of slowingHousing finally picking up in Canada
Job Market:Employment weaker than expected, falling 0.3% in August after 0.2% drop in JulyUnemployment up to 7.1%
Inflation:CPI rises modestly to 1.9%Median & trim inflation at top end of 3% targetInflation contained for time being
Forecasts:Big Bank rate forecasts range from another 0.25% – 0.5% in cuts into next year (this relates to variable rates.. fixed rates expected to be slightly higher in 2026)
Next Bank of Canada Meeting:Scheduled for Oct 29th, 2025
Q2 hasn’t been pretty in Canada – GDP declined by 1.6%, exports are down 27%, business investment continues to decline & unemployment is up to 7.1%.
Inflation is somewhat contained for the time being. Add in the expectation of the US Fed cutting rates later today & a cut was a sure thing coming into today.
Do you remember spring last year when Carolyn Rogers of the Bank of Canada flagged a national crisis in productivity? Our GDP per capita has been contracting for 3 straight years & we continue to be desperate for business investment.
Well, fast forward a year & a half since that warning & Canada is now experiencing the fastest capital flight since the financial crisis.
Investment is leaving the country.
This makes productivity worse. This weakens the loonie. This can pressure rates upwards to defend that & create a feedback loop where higher rates continue to stifle growth & further reduce investor confidence. It’s continued stagflation & we’re not doing anything about it.
Longer term, inflation is going to continue to be THE issue to watch in Canada.
FEELING THE PINCH?
If you’re feeling the pinch from the punishing cost of living these days & have taken on credit card or loc debt, GET IN TOUCH with me today. The higher interest debt has a way of lingering around & strangling your monthly cashflow. WE CAN HELP fix that & get you some breathing room.