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Bank of Canada – April 2025 – NO CHANGE
/in Misc. /by adminInterest Rate Hold:Bank of Canada held interest rates, maintaining Prime Rate of 4.95%This is the first meeting they’ve held rates since April 2024The total number rate cuts this cycle is at 2.25%.
Economic Indicators:inflation lower than expected at 2.3% for MarchCAD strengthened vs USD over the last monthConsumer confidence at an all time lowHome sales plummeting as tariff concerns remain
Job Market:March report was weaker than expected with negative job growth (0.2%)Layoffs starting in Auto sector as a result of trade warUnemployment up 0.1% to 6.7%
Forecasts:5 of the 6 Big Banks forecast further rate cuts in 2025:0.5% – 0.75%
Next Bank of Canada Meeting:Scheduled for June 4th, 2025https://bbemaildelivery.com/bbext/?p=vidEmbed&id=36024853-8AB1-4FE3-A120-E2ACB4FFCE3A&ar=0&ignore_view=1&videoPlayerId=5d66952e-e212-976d-2301-585a57e910c5
The Bank of Canada held rates this morning. This is the first time they have not lowered rates since April of last year.
Much of the release this morning highlighted the uncertainty of the trade war, as Trump continues his Mr Miyagi routine of tariff on, tariff off. Whether you’re a business or individual, it’s tough to stomach deploying capital in an uncertain environment & we’re seeing that follow through in the housing market. It’s a great time to be a buyer, not so great if you need to sell. Business confidence, employment, consumer & business spending are all on the decline, & that’s reflected globally with falling oil prices.
The Bank of Canada outlined 2 scenarios with the trade war:High uncertainty but tariffs limited in scope: Growth weakens temporarily & inflation remains on 2% targetProtracted trade war: causes Canada to enter recession & inflation rises temporarily above 3% in 2026Both pills spell trouble for the economy & is likely to result in further cuts throughout the year.
I think what a lot of people don’t understand is that Bank of Canada rate cuts don’t have a direct correlation to fixed rates. Over the past year they’ve cut rates 2.25% but over that time the 5 year fixed has only come down 1% – 1.5%. Rate cut don’t mean ALL rates come down.
The current expectation is that fixed rates might get a bit better this year, rising into next & the range of big bank expectations for Bank of Canada cuts in 2025 (ie: variable rates) range from no further action (<–Scotia is the outlier) to 0.5%-0.75% (everyone else).
Tiff Macklem, like everyone else, can only wait to see what unfolds but what matters most right now, to you & your mortgage, is having the long-term protection & oversight that we’ve built into our business.
If you have a renewal coming up in the next year, get in touch with us today so we can make sure you don’t miss out on any opportunities.
Bank of Canada Cuts Rates 0.25% – March 2025
/in Misc. /by adminHere are the highlights:
The Bank of Canada has cut interest rates for the 7th consecutive meeting, bringing down Prime from 5.2% to 4.95% & lowering all variable rate mortgages & lines of credit. This brings the total number of cuts to 2.25% since they started in June. Will we get more?
If you ask the big bank economists, the majority say yes, and if the trade war hangs around, we could more than expected.
And so why is that? Don’t tariffs raise prices & inflation? Isn’t that what the Bank of Canada was fighting so hard to fix?
Tariffs can certainly impact prices as the cost of imported goods & raw materials goes up, competition gets reduced & supply chains get disrupted. The 2018 tariff war between the US & China impacted US inflation by the tune of 0.5%.
The bigger concern here at home, though, is the potential impact on growth. Canada has been dealing with a productivity crisis. To fix that you need business investment & if you’re a business, you’re probably looking to take risk off the table right now & NOT make any major investments. You’re probably concerned about the impact to consumer spending so are looking to cut costs right now & that can mean job losses, weaker GDP.
If the trade war sticks, our per capita recession will likely turn to AT LEAST a mild overall recession. Recent falling equity prices & bond yields reflects that expectation. The looming threat alone will result in weaker North American growth.
So yes, tariffs can lead to higher prices but the bigger concern is a recession, which would lead to lower rates.
That’s it for today. If you or any friends or family have a mortgage coming up for renewal this year please get in touch so we can make sure you aren’t missing out on any opportunities.
Bank of Canada cuts rates 0.25% – Jan 2025
/in Misc. /by adminHere are the highlights:
Interest Rate Cut: Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 0.25%, lowering Prime Rate from 5.45% to 5.2%, the sixth consecutive cut.This brings the total rate cuts to 2% since June.
Economic Indicators: inflation down in December from 1.9% to 1.8%GST break helped bring inflation down but will have a reverse effect on future monthsCanadian dollar continues to depreciate vs USDTrade conflict could lead to weaker GDP & higher prices
Job Market: Dec jobs report the best in years91k job gains (40k from public sector)Unemployment drops slightly from 6.8% to 6.7%
Forecasts: 5 of the 6 Big Banks forecast further rate cuts in 2025:range from another 0.5% – 1%Scotia is the outlier seeing no more rate cuts
Next Bank of Canada Meeting: Scheduled for March 12th, 2025
The Bank of Canada has dropped rates by 0.25% at this morning’s rate announcement, the sixth consecutive cut for a total of 2% since they began in June.
Today’s release began with a big disclaimer — all forecasts are out the window depending on what happens with this pending trade war. All eyes are on the cheeto in chief & what will happen with these threatened tariffs.
While the short term impact would be inflationary, long term implications would not be good — potential layoffs, reduced spending & economic slowdown would amplify recession concerns. Over 70% of Canada’s goods & services are sold to the US so some big potential implications here.
On the inflation front, December CPI dropped again from 1.9% to 1.8%. The GST exemption helped bring down prices but that can setup for the reverse effect on inflation in the coming months.
Onto jobs, the December employment data was a big print & the strongest in years — over 90,000 net new jobs, increase in the employment rate & decrease in unemployment.
In terms of what’s to come in 2025 for rates, 5 of the 6 big banks in Canada are expecting anywhere from another 0.5% – 1% in cuts for the year with Scotia being the outlier calling for no further cuts.
REFINANCE ALERT:
There is still a sweet spot right now with how mortgage penalties are calculated where ANYONE WHO OBTAINED A FIXED RATE MORTGAGE BETWEEN FALL LAST YEAR TO SPRING can likely refinance into lower rates & save a significant amount of interest. If you have any friends or family who got a mortgage during that time frame, get in touch before this window of opportunity gets taken away.
The next Bank of Canada meeting is March 12th, 2025.
For more updates and insights, follow @zupanmortgages on Instagram for daily content.
Bank of Canada JUMBO cut – 0.5%
/in Misc. /by adminHere are the highlights:
Big news out of the Bank of Canadathis morning. Tiff & his merry band of bankers have followed the US Fed with a 0.5% rate cut. That brings a total of 1.25% since June & isn’t to be the last.
While a jumbo cut is welcomed news to borrowers, the not so great reality is that they wouldn’t be doing that if things were rock & rolling.
In the release The Bank noted subdued GDP growth in the 2nd half of this year, slightly better for next, but well below the expected 3% global growth. Declining consumption on a per person basis & soft labour market with unemployment running at 6.5% are clear signs the stifling interest rate environment are too restrictive.
Inflation has finally subsided to fall within the acceptable range with last month’s print coming in at 1.6%, but don’t count inflation totally out for dead. Commodity prices picked up surrounding the US FED’s somewhat surprising jumbo rate cut last month & bond yields overall being higher than the summer.
There is 1 more rate meeting to close out the year coming up in Dec. The market is expecting another 1% in cuts by the end of next year.
The next Bank of Canada meeting is December 11th, 2024
Bank of Canada Cuts Rates 0.25% – Sept 2024
/in Misc. /by adminInterest Rate Cut:
-Bank of Canada cuts interest rates by 0.25%, lowering Prime Rate from 6.7% to 6.45%, the third consecutive cut.
Economic Indicators:
-inflation has slowed to lowest level in 3 years at 2.5% annualized
-Employment declined for the second consecutive month
-Q2 GDP grew by 2.1% annualized with population growth at 3.2% (population growth continues to inflate economic growth).
Job Market:
-Canada has been losing jobs
-unemployment at 6.4%
-recent job reports typical of recession.
Population Growth:
-Canada now ranks among the fastest growing countries for population growth
-Our population grew by a record 1.3million people last year, pressuring infrastructure & house supply
Forecasts:
-Big banks forecast further rate cuts:0.25% – 0.5% in cuts for this year.
-Total of 1.25% – 1.75% cuts by the end of 2025.
Next Bank of Canada Meeting:Scheduled for October 23, 2024
This was widely expected after July’s inflation dropped to the slowest level in 3 years at 2.5% annualized & employment declined for a second consecutive month.
The sole blip of good news this summer was the better than expected GDP print for Q2. The economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.1% for the quarter BUT this was all due to continued record population growth. We increased the number of Canadians by 3.2% while the economy grew 2.1% – losing ground!
There has been A LOT more interest in variable rates over the summer for obvious reasons. Prime has dropped by 0.75% since June. What hasn’t changed though is being able to secure roughly 1% lower rates going fixed.
With inflation very close to target & the economy slowing, more rate cuts are sure to come BUT how many & the pace is the big question. This is a nuanced discussion that I LOVE having so if your mortgage is coming up for renewal this year, or you’re looking to buy, get in touch today!
The next Bank of Canada meeting is October 23rd.
For more updates and insights, follow @zupanmortgages on Instagram for daily content.
Bank of Canada CUTS RATES 0.25% – June 2024
/in Misc. /by admin
Ladies & gentleman, for the first time in 4 years, the Bank of Canada has CUT INTEREST RATES 0.25%. Cigarette anyone? Man, that was not a ride I think anyone wants to go on ever again.
What I find interesting is if you read the release & leave out the part about cutting rates, you’d never guess based on their description they’d be cutting rates. It’s not exactly a stinky description of our domestic & global economy but for variable rate mortgage holders & those with upcoming renewals, this is a big sigh of relief. Side note, but 76% of all mortgages in Canada are going to be renewed in the next 2 years & that was certainly on the Bank of Canada’s radar. I’m seeing more & more mortgages getting renewed with payment jumps of $1k, $2k / month, and that just takes away money you can spend elsewhere in the economy to keep things flowing.
Overall, the Bank sees inflation easing enough that they have confidence it will hit 2% (what could go wrong?) & with growth floundering & the economy in excess supply, they’re making life just a little bit easier. We have 4 remaining meetings in 2024. Big Bank economists are hovering around 0.5% in additional rate cuts by the end of the year for 0.75% total. No guarantees there but that at least gives an idea of what we might see.
So what happens now? Do we see real estate pick up as buyers who’ve been on the sidelines, hoping to buy before rates really drop, start moving to action? 0.25% makes little difference in what people qualify for but if rates get down by, say, 1% by early next year that improves buying power by roughly 10% so all else being equal that’s a tailwind for prices. It’s going to be a bumpy road down, I am sure, but this rate relief is a welcome treat & is sure to spring my oilers to victory. We’ve been focusing more content on our Instagram page @zupanmortgages. Look us up if you don’t already follow, give us a share & let me know how you’re liking the content as we do our best to keep you up to date.