Bank of Canada Rate Announcement – March 2024 – NO CHANGE

Good morning, The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at this mornings rate announcement.  No major changes to rate cut expectations as consensus is still slating that for June.  There just hasn’t been enough weakness to justify rate cuts & inflation, while coming down, is still not at 2%. GDP for last year was revised upward to 1.1%, avoiding an official recession, but let’s face it, that has everything to do with the record level of population increase we’ve seen.  You bring in enough bodies, you can juice up demand enough to paint a rosier picture then is reality. ​​​

Mortgage delinquencies in Canada, though still quite low, have risen by more than 50% year over year with Ontario rising 135% & BC 62% over that time frame.  As more mortgages come up for renewal & face the reality of significant payment increases, more Canadians face greater financial stress.  CPI inflation eased to 2.9% for January but housing related costs are the overwhelming biggest driver of those price increases.

The market is still pricing in 0.75% in rate cuts by the end of this year.  Maybe we get that, but it’s prudent to plan for cuts to start later than expected as that can continues to get pushed out into the future. If you, or any friends or family, have a mortgage coming up for renewal in the next year, get in touch.  There are specific scenarios where we can find significantly lower rates than what your current lender is offering & these days, every dollar counts.