April 15, 2015
Following today’s Bank of Canada’s announcement that it will hold overnight rates steady at 0.75%, Dominion Lending Centres’ Chief Economist, Dr. Sherry Cooper, says the outlook is unclear for the Canadian economy and the prospects for a potential rebound in the second half of 2015 are still uncertain.
The Canadian economy has experienced a substantial slowdown in recent months due to drops in the price of oil, and Dr. Cooper expects that any changes to the nation’s economic performance will likely be a result of an improvement in non-energy sectors emanating from the weakness in the Canadian dollar.
“While March employment in Canada improved substantially, business investment remains disappointing,” added Dr. Cooper. “The Bank of Canada has suggested that we will see a transition towards positive growth in exports and capital spending by non-energy producers—both boosted by the depreciating Canadian dollar, but in the near-term, incoming data will likely confirm continued weakness in the manufacturing sector, particularly in autos, and only modest growth in retail sales.”
Dr. Cooper reiterated her confidence in the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy strategy for 2015, despite the current weakened status of the Canadian economy: “I am cautiously optimistic that the Bank has got it right, but I continue to believe that the risks are on the downside for the economy and inflation. My forecast for Canadian growth this year is 1.5 percent–below the Bank’s 1.9 percent forecast. Much hinges on the U.S. economy.”