Bank of Canada Rate Announcement – October
The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at this mornings rate announcement so no changes to your variable rate mortgages or lines of credit. Some interesting points to take note of: the Bank is ending it’s Quantitative Easing program. Basically, that’s a form of tightening.
The other change is walking up their forecast for raising rates. For much of the pandemic the talk was raising rates in 2023. Over the previous couple announcements, that was bumped up to late 2022 & is now sitting at mid 2022.
What’s driving that? Inflation. The Bank expects inflationary pressures to stay elevated into next year & ease back to around their 2% target late 2022.
Energy prices aside, a lot of what’s driving inflation are pandemic impacted services. It’s been a challenge to fill job openings at the low end of the economy as people were paid to stay home, meanwhile a lot of people are sitting on more cash than usual & aren’t as concerned paying $5 more for a haircut or $8 more for lunch. Demand is up, there’s a lack of labor, people have the money so we see higher prices & that is expected to be a covid related problem that will dissipate over time.
On the other hand, look at, say, energy prices. With the green movement there has been a serious lack of development in that space. Of course, we all still need energy so the cost is higher & that isn’t something that will dissipate so quickly.
Every economic recession was lead by a monetary policy error. The thing to consider with inflation is that it is a lagging indicator. It is telling you something about the past, not the future. If you’re basing policy decisions off of the past, you’re late. Central banks tend to panic & raise rates too much, too quickly & too late & I think that is the risk to housing & the overall economy.
On real estate, fundamentally there is still a lack of supply generally speaking in Canada. Supply takes years to fix so the risk to prices going down is rapidly rising rates.
That covers today’s summary. If you’d like to talk more about what higher rates could mean for your mortgage, please get in touch & have a great day.
Bank of Canada September Rate Announcement – no change
No rate change at this morning’s Bank of Canada interest rate announcement & no significant change to the outlook.
What most people want to know is where rates are heading & the forecast is still late 2022. The key word to hang on there is forecast. Forecasts are often wrong.. in Jan of this year the Bank expected the economy to contract in Q1 & it grew at an annualized rate of 5.5%. For Q2 the expectation was 2.5% growth & we saw a contraction of 1.1% annualized. For those interested the swaps traders are pricing in 1 rate hike in the next 12 months & 2 more over the following year which has come down from July.
The not-so-silent-killer, which is getting talked about more & more, is inflation as the 3.7% reading is the highest of the last decade. There are record long wait times for raw materials. Canada’s Farm Product Price Index rose 24.4% YOY in June which tied for the highest reading since the high inflation of the 70s. Prices of just about everything are going up.
So how does inflation relate to your mortgage? I can say with confidence that all of your mortgage rates are lower than inflation, which is actually a good thing from a borrowing perspective. That means you’re paying back the money you borrowed with dollars that are becoming less & less valuable. You essentially have a negative rate mortgage. Some of your debt is inflating away without having to do anything. That gives you an opportunity you can play 2 ways:
- Conservative approach: try put as much extra cash on your mortgage as possible, take advantage of low rates & try gain as much ground as you can while borrowing costs are so low. For those that don’t like debt, this is your time to shine.
- Higher risk approach: use your extra cash to invest, let your debt erode away & focus your resources on growing your financial assets.
With the conservative approach, you’ll become debt free quicker, better insulate yourself from market corrections (although following covid it’s hard to see policy makers letting markets crash), but may not benefit from growth in risk assets.
With the higher risk approach, if we continue to see inflation at these levels or higher, your net worth can grow a lot quicker but you do run the risk of your investments performing poorly & being left with a slower path out of debt.
These are the conversations you should be having about your finances & if you could use some help or direction, please get in touch as I have an excellent financial planner I can put you in touch with.
This went longer than usual but I’m just getting more & more questions on this topic so hope you found it helpful & please share to anyone you think will benefit from watching this : )
Bank of Canada Rate Announcement March – no change!
The Bank of Canada came out with their rate announcement this morning & have kept rates unchanged, shocker! To put this in context the Bank has stated they will not look to raise rates until 2023. That’s what they’re saying. What could change that?
Well, remember that little thing by the name of inflation that for the last year I’ve saying is one of the more important factors to watch? It’s picking up. Commodities have been on a tear, housing is soaring & we’ve certainly noticed an increase in our monthly bills. Fixed rates, which are based on the government of Canada bond yields, have increased significantly in the last 2 weeks. The bond market generally does a good job at front running the economy & things, for now, are better than expected.
Keep in mind there is a great incentive in the powers that be talking down inflation while it slowly creeps up on everything b/c it allows debt to be inflated away as that debt becomes worth less. That’s known as a soft default. You’re not NOT paying your bills, your paying back bills that aren’t worth as much. The risk in talking down doing that is if all of a sudden the market realizes this they could be a sharp increase & shock which could end up being recessionary.
The Bank highlighted inflation is at the lower bound of its 1-3% range & expects it to move to the top end in the next few months but sees that slowing down as the excess capacity in the economy exerts downward pressure. Will they make it to 2023? I have no idea but will be watching it closely.
Thanks for watching & have a great day.
Bank of Canada Rate Announcement October- no change!
The Bank of Canada kept rates unchanged today in their scheduled rate announcement. The economic rebound in Canada has been better than expected but as we now face a second wave, much of the current outlook is dependent on how covid plays out here at home. Housing has been strong. Personally I’ve seen a lot of clients migrating from the downtown core to places like Victoria, the interior & further out in the lower mainland. Working from home is something many are taking advantage of by upgrading for space.
Of course these record low mortgages rates are a big reason for housing’s strength so how does the interest rate forecast look currently? Officially, the Bank of Canada has said they don’t expect to be raising rates until after 2022. They want to hit a 2% inflation target before moving to any increases & they expect inflation to start to pick up slowly early next year.
The Bank is also continuing its bond purchase program, which suppresses yields (and interest rates). I wanted to include this chart as it really illustrates the eye popping balance sheet growth of Canada’s central bank compared to others around the world since the pandemic started.
Currently our central bank owns 1/3 of our federal debt… so we’re generating debt then buying our own debt. Yes this is something many central banks are doing globally, but as soon as inflation expectations pick up, that means more bond buying is required (so more increases to the balance sheet) in order to keep interest rates from rising. It can turn into a vicious cycle where the end result does not fare well for our currency & the cost of goods.
I don’t think we’ll see much of a change in outlook until the end of this year but we have one more rate announcement coming up in December so will update you then.
That’s it for me today. Thanks for watching & have a lovely Wednesday.
Bank of Canada Rate Announcement – no change!
Good morning! This morning our new Bank of Canada governor, Tiff Macklem, carried through with his pledge in July to keep rates at this level for at least 2 years & left rates unchanged at this morning’s policy announcement. Central banks around the world seem committed to letting inflation run hot by keeping rates low. Let’s not forget that low rates has most certainly NOT created meaningful inflation for the last few decades, so what would be different about this time around?
Following 2008 the massive amount of money supply creation (which pales in comparison to what we’ve seen in the last 6 months), went almost exclusively into propping up financial assets. What’s different this time around is a commitment to the fiscal side & putting money into the hands of the ppl & the economy, not just wall street. Governments are creating debts, then printing money to pay for those debts. What could go wrong?
On a recent CNBC interview one of the greatest & most successful investors of the last few decades, Stan Druckenmiller, came out saying for the 1st time in a long time that he is actually worried about inflation & that we could easily see 5-10% inflation in the coming years. Ironically, he also pointed out the rising risks also going the other way towards deflation, as every period of deflation is preceded by an asset bubble. With companies are soaring 30%, 40%, 50% on news of stock splits (which add zero value to a company), when bankrupt companies are seeing their stock prices double while their bonds are trading at a few cents on the dollar, when sports bloggers like Dave Portnoy are calling Warren Buffet washed up while they tout the mantra of stocks only go up, it’s hard to argue we are in anything but a mania driven bubble.
So we have 2 risks – deflation & inflation. What does that mean for your mortgage?
Fixed rates are incredibly low right now. You can lock in rates at or under 2% for the 1st time in Canada’s history. Could mortgage rates go lower? Yes. Could they go negative? No. Are we already very close to zero? Yes!
Now on the flipside to that, could inflation impact the central bank’s commitment to keeping rates low? Yes! Could we see a major breakout of rates from this multi decade downtrend towards zero? Yes! Historically have inflation breakouts taken shape quicker than most expect? YES!
The way I see it, mortgage rates are incredibly attractive right now. They could go a bit lower, but they could also go A LOT higher. What impact would having a mortgage rate that’s 0.5% lower have on your life? What about a rate that’s 2% higher?
These are some of the questions I’m having with clients right now & if you’d like some help mapping through these scenarios, please get in touch.
I’m Ryan. Thanks for watching. Have a great day.
Bank of Canada Rate Announcement: RATES UNCHANGED
Good morning, the Bank of Canada kept rates unchanged this morning with their scheduled rate announcement. From the Bank’s release, the severe impact of Covid appears to have peaked & the gargantuan policy response has helped replace lost income & cushion the effect of the shutdowns. Right now the Bank’s forecast is for a sharp, partial rebound followed by a slower grind back to pre-crisis levels. The grind part of that being the key element.
Let’s remember that policy response was more life support than it was stimulus. Debt, which was already at high levels pre-covid, is giving up future consumption for greater consumption today. Unless that debt is used to create a new income stream that will help pay for that new debt, then it creates a drag on future cash flows. If I take out a mortgage to buy a vacation property, then those payments are going to take away from what I can spend my money on & invest with otherwise. If I use that financing to buy a rental property, I can acquire that asset without my monthly consumption being as impacted. The economic gravity of what has happened in Canada & around the world the past few months is something that will weigh on us for a long time.
What can you do? If you’re able, use this as an opportunity. Take advantage of low rates by creating another income stream, or by reducing your current debt load. If neither of those are options & you are one of the millions turned upside down from has been the worst financial event in anyone’s memory, think about what you can do moving forward to help keep you brace for the unexpected.
I was thinking last night how, through most of my life, it has felt like we have been on a linear path of progress & of course, life is not linear. Life is cycles of booms & busts, bright times followed by dark times. Winston Churchill said never let a good crisis go to waste. Find a way to emerge from this stronger than you were before. If that means taking government help, education, a career change, using technology to improve productivity, re evaluating your monthly budgeting, investing, spending more time with loved ones, find a way to use this situation as a learning experience. It is clear we have entered a darker time as humans. Crisis’s happen & are happening more often than ever in our lifetime. Find a way to better brace for the unexpected.
I’m Ryan, glad to be clean shaven again & to have a reason to iron my dress shirts. I hope you have a great day.
Here is a link to the Bank of Canada release.
Covid-19 Lender Relief
This has been a bit of a moving target & we will do our best to keep this as up to date as possible, but below is a list of the best ways to contact your lender regarding payment relief. PLEASE get in touch if you are having any issues getting through or questions related to the relief available.
Also, make sure to clarify with your lender the financial & credit repercussions of payment deferral.
Blueshore Financial https://www.blueshorefinancial.com/AboutUs/MediaCentre/WhatsNew/03132020/
BANK OF MONTREAL www.bmo.com/covid19
DOMINION MORTGAGE Email. CAP@paradigmquest.com
CMLS FINANCIAL www.cmls.ca/covid-19
FIRST NATIONAL www.firstnational.ca/residential/covid-19
NATIONAL BANK 1-888-835-6281
SIMPLII (PC FINANCIAL) 1-888-723-8881
- -1-866-939-5005 Mortgage Numbers starting with 4
- 1-877-776-6888 Mortgage Numbers starting with 6
- RFA 1-833-228-5697 Mortgage Numbers starting with 7, 8 or 9
ROYAL BANK www.rbc.com/covid-19
SCOTIABANK 1-800-768-2511 https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/personal/scotia-support/latest-updates.html?cid=S1eCOVID0320-001&uid=3435943662&cid=em_ZZ20004&rmid=&rrid=3435943662
STREET CAPITAL See RFA
TD 1-888-720-0075. www.td.com/covid19
Westminster Savings https://www.wscu.com/Personal/AboutUs/MediaCenter/MemberNotices/healthupdate/
What Impact Will Coronavirus Have On Mortgage Rates?
I’ve been getting a lot of questions about how the coronavirus will impact mortgage rates so wanted to get this out there to cover what those looking to buy a home, or have mortgages coming up for renewal, or are thinking of maybe refinancing, should expect. A lot of people you know have mortgages & are going to benefit from watching this so please forward on to friends or family or whoever you think is going to want to know what’s going on.
I’ll try to keep this simple: LOWER RATES. Until the world has gotten this virus under control there will be no pressure on rates to go up. The Bank of Canada dropped rates by twice their usual 0.25% cuts last week, something they haven’t done since the great financial crisis, and that was just as this virus was entering Canada. Is that the last of them? No. Bond yields, which are what fixed rates are priced on, have been finding new bottoms, I expect us to see rates follow suit & continue to hit new all time lows.
Regardless of your personal thoughts on Covid19, what is very clear is how contagious this is. Forget death rate & how many ppl die compared to the seasonal flu. What this boils down to is the potential of exponential growth.
Consider this example: if the number of people in a stadium doubles every day, and it takes 50 days for the entire stadium to be filled, how many days does it take before half the stadium is filled? The answer is 49. On day 48 = 25% full. On day 47 = 12.5% full. On day 46 it’s 6.25% full. So in the span of 4 days we go from 6.25% full to 100% full. That gives you an idea of how quickly things can get out of hand & why authorities want to act early.
The path I think we can expect are schools shutting down, employers allowing people to work from home, conferences & sporting events being cancelled. The countries that have gotten a handle on this thing have done so by implementing draconian measures of more or less locking people inside their homes to prevent the spread & that is where I think things are likely to head. To frame all this from the perspective of the economy, it’s not good. Canada’s growth had already been slowing BEFORE corona had shown up. Look at commodity prices. Look at the price of oil right now. That decline started before the Saudi / Russia feud.
Think about the knock on effects of what happens when people aren’t going out for dinner, going to the mall, taking trips, booking flights. When companies aren’t making sales, they cut costs through layoffs. When people don’t have jobs, they don’t spend money. You can see how a deflationary shock like this can be self reflexive. All of this points to rates continuing to drop.
What does this mean to you? Looking purely from the mortgage perspective, this is obviously good. If you have a mortgage that is over 3%, get in touch because in the last week we have found a ton of opportunities for clients to save money refinancing their mortgage. I still think it’s a bit early, but we’re at least knowing these opportunities exist & waiting for the timing to be optimal before finalizing anything.
If your mortgage is coming up for renewal in the next 6 months, DO NOT take your lender’s early renewal offer. At least, not without checking in with me. I have yet to see one in the last few months that is attractive enough to make moving early worth it but I can at least promise to shoot you straight & can tell you quite quickly what you should do.
If you’re looking to buy a place, as always, be patient. There is going to be opportunity out there & on the mortgage front, you’re going to be looking at rates we have never seen in Canada’s history.
The final piece I want to add here is that there is already a ton of government debt in the system & we’re going to see a lot more. The way governments are going to eventually get out of this debt burden is by trying to create meaningful inflation. Any of us who have spoken to our parents about mortgage rates in the early 80s & 90s, have heard of rates in the high teens & even above 20%. We got there because the government was trying to reel in inflation. I’m not saying we’re going to go to 15%, but even rates going from the mid 2% to the mid 5% is going to create a shock to a lot of borrowers. There is a lot you can do in advance of that to prepare.
Once this worm has turned, it is going to be essential for you to have your mortgage not with a bank specialist, not with your account manager at the branch, neither of those avenues get compensated to service their existing book of business. It is very rare for your banker to approach you with a refinance opportunity.
That is really where us brokers are worth our weight in gold. That’s how we make money is by finding these opportunities & saving you money. You want to work with someone who has your best interests at heart, who knows what’s going on & knows when to do things so you can time it appropriately.
The last thing I’ll add, if you are concerned with the risk of inflation, not in the near term, but down the road, get in touch. I have some awesome strategies for that, one in particular the “inflation hedge,” which I would love to share with any who are interested.
Thanks for watching & have a great day!
Big Move By the Bank of Canada
What a week we’ve had… Yesterday the US Fed did something they hadn’t done since oct 2008. Oct 2008, for some reason that time period stands out but I can’t quite put my finger on why, OH YA, Lehman Brothers went belly up & the global financial system was in shambles!
So what did the Fed do? The Fed had a scheduled meeting for 2 weeks from now but decided to do an emergency rate cut of not 0.25% but 0.5%.
Fast forward to this morning & the Bank of Canada matched them with the same 0.5% drop. This was the first time Canada has done such a move since spring 2009. Not very encouraging precedents…
The reason for the big move was due to the corona virus. Regardless of whether you think this is overblown hype or a legitimate concern, the reality is covid19 brought China’s economy to its knees. China consumes about half of the world’s resources so that alone poses a problem for a commodity based nation like ours.
But what can Central Banks really do to interest rates that are going to counter that? They’re not buying oil. They’re not buying plane tickets. Earlier in the week we saw the Bank of Japan step in with 500 BILLION yen in liquidity injections, followed by the Bank of Australia cutting rates, but both their respective markets, just like the US, rose briefly then fell. What we are seeing is Central Banks losing their ability to actually impact markets & growth.
So what happens from here? Is this big move the only we’ll see? If you’ve been following these summaries of mine then you’ll know that I’ve been expecting lower rates since the summer. The US has a dollar shortage & strength problem they’re trying to fix. You’ve got the eurozone on the brink. I think this is going to be a race to the bottom. And all that was before coronavirus.
I’ve been following this virus since mid January & it was pretty clear even back then that this is an incredibly contagious virus. Anyone who looks at how exponential growth works can see how quickly this can overwhelm a country’s resources, particularly healthcare, & that, to me, is the big risk here at home. Call me a fear monger or buying into the hype, or whatever… a country like China doesn’t completely shut down if it wasn’t absolutely necessary.
So in summary, big rate drop today. Bond yields are either at or near all time lows. The loonie is weak. Business investment is down. It’s not a pretty sight & it appears this could just be the beginning.
How’s that for a happy morning update? I’m Ryan, thanks for watching & have a great day.