For the first time in 12 months the Bank of Canada has NOT raised rates. They signalled a pause after the Jan meeting & held true today but it’s continued to be a really flippy floppy few months. Leading into Christmas bond yields were dropping & fixed rates were coming down. That reversed hard into the new year then returned to dropping below pre-Christmas levels. Enter Feb & another about face with upward pressure on rates & that’s where we still sit today. Over that time the market went from pricing in no more hikes with rates to start dropping late 2023 to then pricing in a potential hike before the fall with the Bank of Canada not dropping until 2024.
Part of the reason for the spike was job gains. Canada added 150k jobs in Jan which was 10 times the estimate, however that was driven by temporary, non permanent resident, non citizen workers to fill the large gap of job vacancies. The interpretation there is that is likely a 1 time boom & not something to read in to deeply on. It’s also important to note that when the economy slows, those temporary workers tend to go back to their home countries so not the best foundation for a robust growing economy. So Tiff has signalled a pause. What is the risk that could cause them to raise again? Inflation & the US FED.
On the inflation front, the good news there it came in softer than expected at 5.9% vs 6.1% expected & down from 6.3% in Dec. Food prices are still high at 10.4% year over year but who really eats food anyways..
The US Fed has recently upped their hawkishness & suggested a potential 50bps hike this month which could lead to a higher terminal rate then previously expected, put pressure on the loonie & pressure the Bank of Canada to take further action. Takeaways from today are that things are taking longer to play out. Still a lot of volatility with rates & the outlook continues to bounce around. At this point it’s looking like for the Bank of Canada to cut this year we would need a significant economic downturn but as of now it’s looking like no rate cuts until next year.
If you have a mortgage coming up for renewal this year get in touch with me today. It never hurts to get some rate holds in & have some irons in the fire as we see how the upcoming months play out. That’s it for me. Thanks for watching & have a great day!
https://ZupanMortgage.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Citywide-logo.png00adminhttps://ZupanMortgage.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Citywide-logo.pngadmin2023-03-08 08:46:422023-03-08 08:46:47Bank of Canada Update March – No Change
2023 starts off where it left off – the Bank of Canada raised interest rates this morning for the 8th consecutive meeting. The good news is it was only 0.25%. The pace has officially slowed. The next step is to pause. Then to drop – a ways away but this is a step in the right direction.
The wording to key on in this morning’s release was that if economic developments evolve in line with expectations they expect to “hold the policy rate at it’s current level.” That doesn’t mean this WILL BE the last hike. It means it COULD be the last hike. Taking that in & piling into risk assets is a great way to make sure this is NOT the last hike.
THE mistake just about everyone made last year, myself included, was underestimating central bank action. Rates were kept so low for so long that no one really believed we would see the about face & aggressive rate hikes that we ended up seeing. The reason being that it was obvious that would cause a world of economic pain & it most certainly is. The mistake was not recognizing that became the intention. That became the justification TO raise, not the reason NOT to.
Remember, the only tool the Bank of Canada has to bring down inflation is crushing the economy. They can’t create more goods. They can’t change government spending. They can, however, make borrowing so expensive that it results in people selling assets & cutting spending to kill demand. They want & need a recession. They want job losses. It just take time for the impact of raising to be felt throughout the economy & we are now into that point.
While 1 & 2 year fixed rates are still very high, 3, 4 & 5 year fixed rates have come down significantly in the last month. 5 year fixed rates are now in the mid 4% range & the trend, right now, is for rates heading in the right direction.
I’ve been getting a lot of questions on whether clients should be paying down their mortgages right now. If you’re in a variable rate, yes you 100% should as you get a guaranteed return & save on interest as soon as you make that extra payment.
If you’re in a fixed rate, though, & your rate is well under 4%, instead of paying down your mortgage, dump that cash into GICs. You can still get GIC rates of 5% or higher from places like EQ BANK so if that is higher than your mortgage rate, you can profit by continuing to borrow at your lower mortgage rate & earning a guaranteed return over 5%. Just make sure you aren’t locking in that investment beyond your mortgage term so that you have the option of paying down your mortgage prior to renewal if mortgage rates are still elevated at that time. If you have 8 months until mortgage renewal, don’t go into a 12 month GIC.
There are a lot of mortgage renewals coming in Canada this year & the vast majority of the industry does not understand some of the tricks on how to get better pricing on mortgage renewals. Please, if you have friends or family who have mortgages coming up for renewal, put them in touch with me. I won’t waste anyone’s time. I very often will help clients even if it means not working with me, but in a lot of cases we’re saving significant amounts by knowing how to structure the renewal properly. Give that gift to the people in your life this applies to & please put us in touch.
TAKEAWAYS
Variable rates & LOC rates increase by 0.25%
Bank of Canada signals this could be the last hike (barring surprises)
Fixed rates have started to come down
HAVE EXTRA CASH? Do this:
if in a Variable Rate Mortgage, consider paying down your mortgage.
https://ZupanMortgage.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Citywide-logo.png00adminhttps://ZupanMortgage.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Citywide-logo.pngadmin2023-01-25 08:22:472023-01-25 08:22:53Bank of Canada Raises 0.25% – January 2023
More pain this morning as the Bank of Canada surprises markets for the 2nd meeting in a row & raises 0.5% vs the market’s expectation of 0.25%. Last meeting consensus was expecting more & we got less. This week, the opposite. As of this morning market expectations are still for another 0.25% but as we’ve seen throughout this year, this can all change for better or worse. The Bank ended their release ambiguously stating they will be considering whether the policy interest rate needs to rise further. This is a change from their typical, “more action is needed,” line but as we saw today & throughout this year, be cautious with optimism with these guys, although it does appear we are very near the end here.
Inflation continues to come down but CPI inflation is still at 6.9% with core inflation around 5%. Canada’s 10s/2s yield curve, which gives an indication of future economic activity, is the most inverted since the early 1990s. In a health economy the curve slopes upwards, which points to economic growth into the future. When short term yields are higher than long term, the curve slopes downwards, which corresponds to periods of economic recession. The growth outlook is not good. Winter is coming.
A lot has been made over the last month of Central Bank action. The head of Australia’s central bank actually came out with an apology to people who took out mortgages last year under the guidance of rates being low until 2024. In Canada, for the first time ever our central bank ran a loss. Keep in mind that loss falls on the backs of tax payers & is looking to be something to the tune of a $10b loss – instead of collecting something around $3b annually from the Bank of Canada, we’ll be forking out approximately $7b overt the next 3 years. First time ever. Ever is a long time..
They also admitted they should have raised rates sooner but defended paying out $18.4m in bonuses to staff last year so more signs of how broken our world has become.
Prior to this morning, around 13% of all mortgages in Canada had passed their trigger rate, meaning their payments were not covering all the interest owed for that month. After today that number will be higher. If you’re in that boat, raise your payments, even if you have already. You want to delay the trigger situation as much as you can. Around 75% of mortgages in Canada this year were in variable rates, which, in a lot of situations had to do with broken policy pushing clients to going variable in order to have the lower stress test rate & qualify for their purchase. Also, in fairness, given the history of this central bank it was hard envision the hawkishness we ended up seeing.
Looking at my own business, what I got wrong was, we knew inflation was going to be an issue & that’s something I was talking about since 2020. We knew there was a ton of debt in the country & raising rates would be problematic, which it is & will continue to be, but what I underestimated was the level of damage that could occur between when they started raising & finished. I completely underestimated the level of pain & damage they would be willing to reign down & that is something I take very seriously. Myself & really everyone completely missed the boat on that. The conflict in Ukraine certainly didn’t help & looking back that seemed to be the point where the switch really flipped & that was used as the excuse to really move to significant increases, but whether that happened or not, inflation still would have been high & that’s not THE reason for this year.
Even though variable had been the better bet close to 90% of the time in Canada’s history, the take away for me is to really outline what could happen in that 1 time in 10 where it isn’t.
This is the last meeting for 2022. One that will surely be remembered for a long time. Next year the story will be when will rates start to drop but I would suspect mid to late 2023 before any relief comes on that front.
That’s it for me. Thanks for watching & please get in touch if you’d like to discuss.
https://ZupanMortgage.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Citywide-logo.png00adminhttps://ZupanMortgage.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Citywide-logo.pngadmin2022-12-07 09:36:062022-12-07 09:36:13Bank of Canada rate increase – 0.5% Dec 2022
“It is our intention to let inflation run hot.” Think about that. Think about that in the context of what’s happened this year. Think about how much inflation was juiced from keeping rates ultra low & using tax payer money to buy government debt in order to help fuel spending & liquidity, then flipping a switch & causing a world of pain on avg Canadians who followed your guidance, bought homes, took out debt on the basis of rates being low well into 2023 & then forcing a recession to fix that mistake.
It’s hard to imagine a 50bps hike somehow being good news, but believe me, it is. Consensus was for another 0.75% hike at today’s rate announcement & the Bank of Canada for the first time since January surprised to the downside. Coming into this meeting there were 1 – 1.25% in total hikes being priced in so we will see how that plays out over the next few months & whether those expectations come down following this morning. We’re not out of the woods yet but today was a positive move for getting some eventual rate relief.
This has been an incredibly difficult central bank to read this year, going from being ultra dovish, which means, favouring low rates & easy monetary conditions, to flipping a switch in April & going on an unrelenting war path, doing everything they can to engineer the recession that we’re frankly already in. GDP is 0 & if you back out immigration it’s been negative for a while. The risk that I think we’re likely to face is, following the tsunami of demand throughout the last 2 years, all that consumption was pulled forward which leaves a void. A void that’s surrounded by higher rates & higher cost of living.
I was listening to an interview with Stan Druckenmiller last month, billionaire investor & one of the brightest financial forecasters of the last few decades, liken the US Fed (and this applies to the Bank of Canada) to a kid driving a Porsche 200 miles an hour then not just taking his foot off the pedal but slamming on the brakes. What’s happened this year is causing a lot of shakiness around the world. The UK pension system almost blew up a few weeks back, followed by credit Suisse, with problems all over Europe. The US dollar is on a wrecking path. This is not a recipe for a soft landing & there are sure to be more fireworks to come here.
What tends to happen in rate hike cycles is they slow the hikes, which we’re hopefully starting to see today, then stop hiking, then move to dropping, which is looking like mid 2023, or at least, that’s when the bond market is pricing in relief & again you have to take these things with a grain of salt because at the end of the day they are just forecasts & not reality & can change.
Inflation came in above expectations last month which drove the 0.75% hike today projection leading into today but it is still continuing to trend down since it peaked in the summer. Expectations are for that to continue with inflation softening to 3% into the later half of next year. What’s going to be interesting is the stated focus on getting inflation to 2% (never mind it hasn’t been that low since March 2021). By the Bank’s own forecast that won’t happen until 2024, although not even a year ago their forecast was for 2% inflation by this time. What are we to read from that?
The Bank ended their announcement saying they will continue to take action as required to achieve the 2% target. They also highlighted stalled growth through this year into the 2nd half of next & in the post announcement presser openly discussed the likelihood of negative growth & basically a recession in the quarters ahead. Can you envision a scenario where economic data continues to decline as they continue to raise rates? This month we’ve started to see more political backlash against these moves & intuitively it seems unnecessary, but we really don’t know.
We’re likely to see at least 1 more rate hike coming up in Dec. If you’re in a variable rate mortgage, until rates start to drop, tighten up spending, avoid major purchases, be prepared for more pain even though today was a positive move. If you’d like to discuss any of this, please get in touch. Otherwise thanks for watching & see you in Dec.
https://ZupanMortgage.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Citywide-logo.png00adminhttps://ZupanMortgage.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Citywide-logo.pngadmin2022-10-26 09:26:042022-10-26 09:29:05Bank of Canada Rate Announcement – Oct 2022 – 0.5% increase
The Bank of Canada raised another whopping 0.75% at this morning’s rate announcement, making a total of 3% in the last 6 months & leaving the door open for more rate increases. This has been a massive move in a short period of time & based on their announcement we may not be out of the woods yet.
GDP is weaker than projected with the last 2 month’s readings being 0% & -0.1%. Growth has clearly turned. Housing continues to pull back across the country however inflation is still high at 7.6%. The target is 2%. We’re a clearly a ways off from that so the question is, are we going to see the Bank of Canada continue to march up rates until inflation starts with a 2? They could have raised rates by 3% this morning & next month’s reading still wouldn’t be close to 2%. Is the plan to talk aggressively to decrease how much further action they’re going to take?
In that piece Tiff highlighted that inflation appears to have peaked but that it also remains far too high & will likely remain too high for some time. He continued that they need to tame inflation back to 2% by raising borrowing costs in the “short term.” They don’t want to choke off demand, but slow it’s growth for what they call a “soft landing.”
How much confidence do you have in the same people who are largely responsible for the high inflation we’re experiencing today, who were clueless as it ramped up, refrained from doing anything while inflation was accelerating all last year, to be able to artfully land this ship without triggering a recession? Inflation hasn’t been at 2% in over 1.5 years & they did nothing for the bulk of that.
I thought I’d go back over the recent history of Central Bank messaging & highlight some of the statements to give an idea of the type of accuracy we can expect here:
When Covid hit, Tiff Macklem said (a number of times) that they didn’t plan on raising rates until well into 2023, to be assured that we will have low borrowing costs “for a long time” & suggested to anyone “considering making a major purchase (… or) investment, you can be confident rates will remain low for a long time”.
It’s not 2023. Rates are not low.
In the 2nd half of last year, while inflation was ramping up, their statements highlighted that inflation was going to be temporary & that even though it was above their 2% target, that was “as expected.”
As recently as December of 2021, while inflation continued to ramp up, they stated that inflation would be back to 2% by late 2022.
One month later at their January 2022 meeting that changed to inflation will decline “reasonable quickly to about 3% by the end of this year.”
Two months following that statement inflation was all of a sudden not a temporary phenomena & actually a problem & so began the rate hikes.
Those comments haven’t aged well & all but the 1st aren’t even a year old!
So what to do with your variable rate mortgages? CIBC came out last week stating they think this will be the final rate increase we see but if you take Tiff at his word, we have more rate hikes to come. The Bank of Canada has highlighted recently that they are “front loading” the rate hikes & in the post called attention to the hikes being short term but what are you to believe?
If you’re in a variable, you can always lock in but the question is if it’s worth locking into a fixed rate of 4.5% – 5% to avoid having your variable cross that threshold for, say, 6 months? For 12? Are you OK giving up the option of benefitting when rates do eventually drop?
Variable rates have only really been going up for 6 months & only recently have crossed the threshold of being more expensive per month than if you had gone with a fixed rate for most variable rate mortgages.
Would you have felt the same pain or anxiety you feel now if you had taken a fixed rate right from the get go & had been paying considerably more being in a fixed for the past many years while the variable has been lower?
Feeling safer comes with a premium. Feelings should never drive financial decisions.
I’m going to highlight some action points below if you are a in a variable but please do reach out to me today if you would like to discuss any of this.
OPTIONS:
Lock into a fixed rate around 5% depending on the term with no cost to do so:
PROS:
-piece of mind
CONS:
-not being able to benefit from potentially lower rates in the future (when rates drop fixed rate penalties get expensive)
-taking on significantly higher penalty risk
If you’re in a fluctuating payment variable rate, switch into a fixed payment variable rate & extend the amortization back up to the max
PROS:
-with fixed payments your cash flow will not be impacted by the rate changes as your payments are fixed (but the amount that goes towards principal/interest will fluctuate as rates change)
-when rates do eventually drop you will pay your mortgage off quicker as more of your payment will then go towards principal vs interest
CONS:
-will incur a small 3 months interest penalty
-will not be able to benefit with lowering payments from dropping rates
Move into a 1 year fixed rate term
PROS:
-payment/rate security to ride out the current rate volatility
-not locking into a long term at a time where rates are just below the peak & hopefully renewing that mortgage in a year’s time where rates should be lower than today.
CONS:
-will incur a 3 months interest penalty
-cannot benefit from lower cash flow with lower payments until renewal
https://ZupanMortgage.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Citywide-logo.png00adminhttps://ZupanMortgage.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Citywide-logo.pngadmin2022-09-07 10:21:332022-09-07 10:21:41Bank of Canada 0.75% increase – Sept 2022
The Bank of Canada followed through with their 3rd increase of 2022 & raised rates by 0.5% at this morning’s rate announcement. That brings the total number of increases to 1.25% on this rate hike cycle & the same total amount as the last rate hike cycle in 2018. There are additional rate hikes being priced in for this year & the way things look now another 0.5% increase at the July meeting is looking likely.
I know for a lot of people, reading that tends to result in the knee jerk reaction of wanting to lock into a fixed but keep in mind, doing that is locking in another 1.5%+ rate hikes right away & takes on a significantly higher penalty risk if you break your mortgage early.
Psychology is a funny thing as, from the conversations I have with clients, many people tend to think that if your variable rate ends up getting to the same level as the fixed rate, then it’s been a mistake.. the reality is it’s still been a good move as you’ve saved on the way up. For a variable to end up costing more over your term it would have to continue rising & stay there.
The ”stay there” is the key piece. If you look at past rate hike cycles you’ll see that anytime we’ve seen sharp rate increase like we’re seeing now, it tends to result in rates falling just as sharply & roughly a year after the rate hikes started.
HISTORY OF PRIME RATE IN CANADA
It’s called variable for a reason. What goes up, goes down & what goes up quickly, comes down quickly as the shock has a more significant impact.
I wanted to take a step back here & put into context what has happened over the last 2 years because a lot of people like to lean on the forecasters. The Bank of Canada in 2020 said repeatedly that it would not raise rates until 2023. How many people based major financial decisions around that guidance?
While they were saying that, our federal government was flooding record amounts of stimulus into the bank accounts of Canadians & I think we all heard no shortage of stories of cheques that went out to people or companies who frankly, didn’t need it.
So we had record low borrowing rates, free money flying around & of course that turbo charged demand, all at a time where lockdowns & restrictions wreaked havoc on supply chains. The Bank of Canada said repeatedly they intended to let inflation “run hot.”
All of last year inflation started to build, and build and build. In the face of the highest inflation reading in nearly 2 decades, the Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at their January meeting. Then, the rush to play catch up & come in hot & heavy with 50bps hikes.
The thing with high prices is that they are cured by high prices. Meaning, high prices take away from the potential to spend elsewhere in the economy so demand suffers. As demand goes down, so eventually will prices. Canada’s GDP for Q1 came in well below expectation at 3.1%, compared to 6.6% last quarter.
Growth is slowing. Add on to that how mortgage costs have doubled this year & you have a recipe for recession. It’s not a question of if. It’s a question of when.
https://ZupanMortgage.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Citywide-logo.png00adminhttps://ZupanMortgage.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Citywide-logo.pngadmin2022-06-01 08:50:242022-06-01 08:50:32Bank of Canada 0.5% rate increase – June
Wow, the last month has been one of the craziest I’ve seen in my 12 years doing this job. The Bank of Canada raised rates by 0.5% at this morning’s interest rate announcement. Big move.
The last month saw the biggest jump in fixed rates in over 30 years with most lenders in Canada now above 4% for a 5 year fixed. All the worst expectations for inflation & rate hikes seem to be priced in but it’s important to remember where we are in the business cycle & how that can impact some of these wild rate hike expectations.
Before we get into it, remember, if you’re in a fixed rate. Today’s move doesn’t directly impact your mortgage. You’re locked in. What I would suggest, though, is starting to think about your payments at renewal & what you can do to prepare for that. Get in touch with me to discuss strategies to brace for that.
If you’re in a variable rate, it’s important to keep in mind you’re still saving a significant amount vs locking in here. Even with a 0.5% jump today, locking in would mean a rate likely around 1.5% more than you’re in currently. We’re going to get more rate increases, but remember that the variable only costs more if rates rise by not only that much, but more & stay there..
Let’s talk about inflation. Inflation tells us what happened, not what’s going to happen. Prices have been accelerating upwards for over a year. While our central bankers were telling us it’s not an issue, transitory was the word often used, & would ease by the end of this year, it was ripping. They explicitly wanted it to run hot & now, after keeping rates at record lows & lower than they should have been all the way up until last month, it’s hot. The question is, will it continue to stay hot?
Inflation is a rate of change measure. It was March of last year when inflation started picking up so due to higher base effects, it will be a steep hurdle for CPI to continue these high prints moving forward & not start to come down. We would need something like oil alone to avg around $150 / barrel for the entire month. It’s already dropped approx. 20% from last month’s high.
The other piece to weigh into this is demand destruction. With fixed mortgage rates over 4%, will house prices continue to rip to the upside? The real estate market in Canada appears to have peaked last month as higher rates started to be felt. With gas & energy prices eating into disposable income, will consumers have the same firepower to put cash into renovating homes, buying cars, taking vacations, etc. ? No. In a lot of ways, the bond market & higher costs are doing the Bank of Canada’s work for them in slowing growth & cooling things down.
So inflation tells us about the past, what do the forward looking indicators suggest we can expect? All signs suggest to central banks tightening & raising rates late in the cycle & into an already forming slowdown. A recipe for a recession.
In the US, a famously reliable indicator of a recession within the next 2 years is the spread on the 10 year & 2 year bond yields. The spread inverted which means the long bond has a lower yield than the short term bond. That means rates are going to go up & then come down. Central banks rising rates is going to break things. Personally I would be shocked if they get anywhere near the rate hike expectations this year without triggering a recession by the end of the year.
Consumer cyclical stocks are down approx. 20%. The transport new orders index has seen an extraordinary reduction in new orders. China’s PMI went from 50 to 42 which is a massive move. These aren’t things that suggest anything but a big slow down ahead.
It never feels good as rates go up if you’re in a variable. It feels even worse reading all the sky is falling articles in the news about inflation & 2% rate hikes this year, but don’t react based on feelings. Remember, even if we get another 1.5% in rate hikes this year, depending on your variable rate, you’re still saving money. You’ve saved a significant amount riding it out this far. The more rate go up, the less potential they have to continue going up. Locking in immediately takes on a higher penalty risk, higher payments, higher cost. Do you want to be doing that at a time when inflation & growth is already slowing on rate of change terms?
The invasion of Ukraine has thrown a lot uncertainty into the geopolitical landscape. Oil prices & other commodities have risen sharply, which will add to inflation around the world & weigh on global growth. So we have rising inflation pressures with slowing growth. Not a great setup.
In decades past a rising oil price benefited our currency as there was a stronger link between capital spending & energy prices but due to environmental, social & governance pressure with the push for clean energy, we aren’t seeing that here. The last time oil was over $100 / barrel the loonie was close to par with USD so greater purchasing power reduced costs. Right now we’re at 78 cents.
Inflation is still well above the Bank’s 2% target with CPI sitting at 5.1%. The war in Ukraine will keep that elevated & raise the risk of rising longer term inflation expectations.
What impact will this have on rates? The 5 year bond yield, which the 5 year fixed rates is priced upon, has dropped since the invasion started, opening the door for a potential easing to 5 yr fixed rates. Rate hike expectations on what the Bank of Canada will do has now dropped from 6 to 5. Upward pressure on interest rates has eased a bit.
If you’re in a variable rate mortgage, a rate increase is never what you want to hear but it’s important to remember that we knew rates were going to start going up here & continue going up this year, but being in a variable, you’re still saving a significant amount vs being in a fixed rate or locking. Fixed rates are generally well above 3% so compare that to what you’re in right now in a variable. Is the next 5 years going to be the 1 time in 10 a fixed rate ends up costing less than a variable rate? I don’t think so but if that anxiety is weighing on your variable rate, get in touch & we can talk through the decision to lock in.
The last point I’ll end on is if you or any friends or family have a mortgage coming up for renewal in the next 2 years, get in touch with me if we haven’t already spoken. What we’ve been doing for clients the last few weeks is going over how much higher rates would have to rise from here to make renewing early worth it.
That’s it for me.
Thanks for watching & have a great day.
https://ZupanMortgage.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Citywide-logo.png00adminhttps://ZupanMortgage.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Citywide-logo.pngadmin2022-03-02 10:40:452022-03-02 10:40:55Bank of Canada Rate Increase – Feb 2022 announcement
No real change in messaging with the Bank of Canada’s interest rate announcement this morning. No change to rates. No indication they’ll be moving up their guidance to be looking to raise rates in the middle quarters of next year. That said, the risks appear to be to rates going up sooner than expected as markets are pricing in 1 rate hike in March but that is obviously something that can change.
I’ve gotten a lot of inquiries from clients in the last month in variable rate mortgages wondering if they should lock in. Yes, rates are going to start going up next year but that, in itself, isn’t a reason to lock in. It’s a question of how many rate increases & how quickly we will get them that determines whether locking in makes sense.
Right now, variable rates are significantly below fixed rates. Last year we had fixed rates close to 1.5%. Going fixed was extremely compelling. Right now fixed rates are close to 3%. Compared to current variable rates you’re 5-6 Bank of Canada rate increases (1.25-1.5%) away from that. The last rate hike cycle saw 5 increases & it took 1.5 years to get there. If you are concerned about rates going up & lock in, you’re guaranteeing those rate increases immediately vs being able to save a significant amount over the next 2 years let’s call it & for that to pay off, you not only need those 5-6 rate increases but continued increasing beyond that point.
If you lock in, you also immediately take on the risk of a higher mortgage penalty & if you are like the overwhelming majority of Canadians who break their mortgages early, that’s not a good thing.
As well, locking in a variable you lose any potential benefit of being able to ride rates back down if the economy slows & we enter a recession. There is a nimbleness to the variable rate that is a big reason why it’s been the better play close to 90% of the time so keep that in mind & if you’d like to talk about your specific situation please get in touch.
The one topic that often comes up is the 70s, 80s & early 90s when we had double digit mortgage rates & concerns we could get back to that. Well, back then there wasn’t anywhere near the same amount of government & private debt as we have now so the economy could handle significant rate increases. Completely different story today. A 1% rate increase today has a much larger impact than it would have in, say, the early 80s.
Rates going up can strike fear into a lot of hearts but when you start to look at what that could actually mean, it’s often not as scary as you think.
That wraps up the last of the Bank of Canada rate announcements for the year so I wanted to thank you for watching & wish you & your families a very Merry Christmas & if you don’t celebrate Christmas, a very happy holiday season : )
https://ZupanMortgage.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Citywide-logo.png00adminhttps://ZupanMortgage.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Citywide-logo.pngadmin2021-12-08 09:39:192021-12-08 09:43:14Bank of Canada Rate Announcement – Dec 2021
The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at this mornings rate announcement so no changes to your variable rate mortgages or lines of credit. Some interesting points to take note of: the Bank is ending it’s Quantitative Easing program. Basically, that’s a form of tightening.
The other change is walking up their forecast for raising rates. For much of the pandemic the talk was raising rates in 2023. Over the previous couple announcements, that was bumped up to late 2022 & is now sitting at mid 2022.
What’s driving that? Inflation. The Bank expects inflationary pressures to stay elevated into next year & ease back to around their 2% target late 2022.
Energy prices aside, a lot of what’s driving inflation are pandemic impacted services. It’s been a challenge to fill job openings at the low end of the economy as people were paid to stay home, meanwhile a lot of people are sitting on more cash than usual & aren’t as concerned paying $5 more for a haircut or $8 more for lunch. Demand is up, there’s a lack of labor, people have the money so we see higher prices & that is expected to be a covid related problem that will dissipate over time.
On the other hand, look at, say, energy prices. With the green movement there has been a serious lack of development in that space. Of course, we all still need energy so the cost is higher & that isn’t something that will dissipate so quickly.
Every economic recession was lead by a monetary policy error. The thing to consider with inflation is that it is a lagging indicator. It is telling you something about the past, not the future. If you’re basing policy decisions off of the past, you’re late. Central banks tend to panic & raise rates too much, too quickly & too late & I think that is the risk to housing & the overall economy.
On real estate, fundamentally there is still a lack of supply generally speaking in Canada. Supply takes years to fix so the risk to prices going down is rapidly rising rates.
That covers today’s summary. If you’d like to talk more about what higher rates could mean for your mortgage, please get in touch & have a great day.
https://ZupanMortgage.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Citywide-logo.png00adminhttps://ZupanMortgage.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Citywide-logo.pngadmin2021-10-27 09:42:312021-10-27 09:42:47Bank of Canada Rate Announcement – October
